Pre-tourney Rankings
Colonial Athletic
2011-12


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
52 Virginia Commonwealth 100.0%   12   28 - 6 15 - 3 28 - 6 15 - 3 +8.3      +3.3 86 +5.0 39 66.6 192 +10.6 37 +9.5 2
63 Drexel 14.6%   27 - 6 16 - 2 27 - 6 16 - 2 +7.5      +3.1 94 +4.4 56 58.6 325 +9.0 50 +11.0 1
98 Georgia St. 0.0%   21 - 11 11 - 7 21 - 11 11 - 7 +5.0      -0.8 195 +5.8 27 66.1 208 +2.0 142 +2.5 6
107 Old Dominion 0.0%   20 - 13 13 - 5 20 - 13 13 - 5 +4.2      -1.6 222 +5.8 26 66.9 186 +4.0 113 +5.2 4
112 George Mason 0.0%   24 - 9 14 - 4 24 - 9 14 - 4 +4.0      +0.6 150 +3.4 75 72.1 72 +5.8 89 +7.5 3
166 Delaware 0.0%   18 - 13 12 - 6 18 - 13 12 - 6 +0.1      +0.5 156 -0.4 179 71.6 78 +1.3 148 +4.1 5
200 Northeastern 0.0%   14 - 17 9 - 9 14 - 17 9 - 9 -1.9      -1.8 229 -0.1 174 64.9 237 -0.4 173 -0.5 7
218 Hofstra 0.0%   10 - 22 3 - 15 10 - 22 3 - 15 -3.1      -2.6 240 -0.5 183 68.2 150 -6.0 261 -10.7 11
236 UNC Wilmington 0.0%   10 - 21 5 - 13 10 - 21 5 - 13 -4.4      -1.3 215 -3.1 265 68.1 152 -3.9 231 -5.9 8
249 James Madison 0.0%   12 - 20 5 - 13 12 - 20 5 - 13 -5.1      -1.3 214 -3.8 278 68.6 135 -4.6 243 -7.2 9
290 William & Mary 0.0%   5 - 26 4 - 14 5 - 26 4 - 14 -7.7      -2.7 246 -5.0 299 62.5 279 -10.7 311 -7.8 10
331 Towson 0.0%   1 - 31 1 - 17 1 - 31 1 - 17 -14.3      -9.4 335 -4.8 294 61.2 303 -21.7 343 -16.5 12





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Virginia Commonwealth 2.0 100.0
Drexel 1.0 100.0
Georgia St. 6.0 100.0
Old Dominion 4.0 100.0
George Mason 3.0 100.0
Delaware 5.0 100.0
Northeastern 7.0 100.0
Hofstra 11.0 100.0
UNC Wilmington 8.0 100.0
James Madison 8.0 100.0
William & Mary 10.0 100.0
Towson 12.0 100.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Virginia Commonwealth 15 - 3 100.0
Drexel 16 - 2 100.0
Georgia St. 11 - 7 100.0
Old Dominion 13 - 5 100.0
George Mason 14 - 4 100.0
Delaware 12 - 6 100.0
Northeastern 9 - 9 100.0
Hofstra 3 - 15 100.0
UNC Wilmington 5 - 13 100.0
James Madison 5 - 13 100.0
William & Mary 4 - 14 100.0
Towson 1 - 17 100.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Virginia Commonwealth
Drexel 100.0% 100.0
Georgia St.
Old Dominion
George Mason
Delaware
Northeastern
Hofstra
UNC Wilmington
James Madison
William & Mary
Towson


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Virginia Commonwealth 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 12   0.0 0.8 7.0 31.1 46.8 13.7 0.5
Drexel 14.6% 0.0% 14.6% 0.0 0.8 5.9 7.0 1.0 0.0 85.4 14.6%
Georgia St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Old Dominion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
George Mason 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Delaware 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Northeastern 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Hofstra 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
UNC Wilmington 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
James Madison 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
William & Mary 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Towson 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Virginia Commonwealth 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 33.4% 11.4% 2.5% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0%
Drexel 14.6% 14.0% 7.7% 2.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Old Dominion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
George Mason 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Delaware 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northeastern 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Hofstra 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UNC Wilmington 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
James Madison 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
William & Mary 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Towson 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.1 85.3 14.7
1st Round 100.0% 1.1 92.3 7.8
2nd Round 34.7% 0.4 65.3 34.1 0.6
Sweet Sixteen 12.1% 0.1 87.9 12.1 0.0
Elite Eight 2.6% 0.0 97.4 2.6
Final Four 0.6% 0.0 99.4 0.6
Final Game 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0